Monday, April 21, 2008

Pennsylvania primary boring

It's not that exciting, really. Hillary Clinton needs a victory by 10-12 points to really have a chance at a Superdelegate-stolen nomination (which wouldn't happen anyway, so never mind). She's going to beat Obama by six to eight points. That gains her 15 to 30 delegates on Obama, who leads by at least 140 delegates. Even if Hillary really pulls it out at the last minute and wins by 15 points, than big chunk of gained delegates will be equalized in North Carolina, where Obama will win by more than 10 points (maybe as high as 20). At that point the situation will be the same as it is right now.

If Obama pulls off a close loss - within five points of Clinton, I think - then there will be another round of "Hillary, please drop out" op-eds in the papers. A debate performance generally regarded as hostile and lackluster did not damage Obama, and didn't help Clinton either. Not much has changed in a long time. This political situation is stuck on a treadmill, and Clinton is running low on endurance.

I almost hope something important happens tomorrow, just so I can be wrong and have a chance to explain why I was wrong.

Only one good thing has come from this Pennsylvania mess for the democrats: whichever one wins, the nominee will have a very good chance to beat McCain in this crucial state.


Anonymous said...

it was said the other day that pennsylvania has philadelphia in the east and pittsburgh in the west and alabama in between. I don't know how that relates to what you said but I like to say it

j mccain

Anonymous said...

i don't think any of this is boring, and i'm wishing obama could win in Pa, but that' wishful of course

it would help to unite dems and perhaps pull in some independents and then the party could get to the real work of helping out the middle class a bit and ending this war and bringing all those wonderfully talented and dedicated servicemen and women home.

true blue dem because the conservatives have lost their way and are allowing many in their party to spew hateful messages on radio and tv. can't stand all these messages filled with vitriole. just tune into fox or the sean hannity show or the rush limbaugh show, they are spewing hate and have no other message but to belittle and demean the democratic candidates

true blue dem