Wednesday, May 28, 2008

McCain should be saying "Oh shit!"

The Republican primary in Idaho was held yesterday. Now I've written before about how a staggering number of primary voters won't throw their support in with McCain. I assumed that the protest effect would get weaker and weaker as time wore on, since people who protest like this aren't going to vote Democrat in the fall. They would inevitably reconcile themselves to McCain, or they would stay home and not care to vote. Either way, there would be fewer 'dissenters' from the party's nominee.

I was horribly wrong in Idaho. McCain made the state his worst showing since winning the nomination. He got 70% of the vote. And this time, the protest vote wasn't split between "none of the above," Huckabee and Ron Paul.

Idaho voted 24% for Ron Paul.

In no way does this mean Paul's candidacy has a chance. But it does mean Bob Barr does. Barr only aims for 2-5% of the vote in November. Votes for Paul are votes of longing for a small-government GOP, which McCain does not represent. With the Republicans scattered and their candidate offering very little to right-libertarians, Barr could spoil the race for McCain.

No third party is even capable of hurting Obama this much - Cynthia Mckinney for the Green Party is a joke. She's a 9/11 Truther and is publicly disdained. [However, a quick google images search shows that much of that disdain is poured out in creepily racist ways]

Back to Idaho, I am not predicting a larger group of dissenters from now on. I think Idaho was an exception and that the remaining states will fall in line. It does point out the ways that voters desire a small-government conservative. Unfortunately, McCain has to choose his VP from either the small-government or religious right constituencies. I think he cannot win without the RR, and that, for practical reasons, his VP should be from that group. This means that he won't be able to pacify libertarian dissenters.

The New Mexico Republican primary is on June 3. I predict McCain gets 78% - better than his previous 75% scores or his painfully low 70% in Idaho. This doesn't mean McCain's out of trouble. By now he should be getting 85-90%. It just demonstrates how badly the GOP is limping right now.

2 comments:

Ted said...

Here's an important piece of advice: If it looks like it's going to be McCain/Palin anyway (and that should be a "no brainer" for Team McCain), McCain should announce NOW or VERY SOON, rather than later towards the convention. There's currently a growing chorus for Obama/Hillary (as VP) ticket (in fact the Dems are likely aware of the Palin phenomenon). If the GOP waits while movement for Hillary as VP grows -- even worse until after it is solidified that Hillary will/could be VP pick -- selecting Palin will be portrayed by Dems/liberal media more as a reaction by GOP selecting its own female (overshawdoing Palin's own remarkable assets), rather than McCain taking the lead on this. Selecting Palin now or early (contrary to the punditocracy) will mean McCain will be seen as driving the course of this campaign overwhelmingly, and the DEMS will be seen as merely reacting. And, there's absoultely no down-side to this because even if Hillary is a no-go as VP for Obama, the GOP gains by acting early. McCain the maverick. Palin the maverick. Do it now!

There's no reason, and actually substantial negative, in McCain waiting to see what the Dems do first insofar as his picking Palin as VP, because, no matter who Obama picks, Palin is by far (and I mean far) the best pick for McCain and the GOP, especially in this time of GOP woes. The GOP can be seen as the party of real 'change' (albeit I hate that mantra, change, change, bla bla), while not really having to change from GOP core conservative values, which Palin more than represents.

In light of the current oil/energy situation, as well as the disaffected female Hillary voters situation, and growing focus on McCain's age and health, Palin is more than perfect -- now.

(Perhaps Team McCain is already on to this.)

Anonymous said...

the home team should be pitching a shutout when they already have been declared the winner. the fact that the visitors have scored runs without showing up screams of weakness. mccain can't rally his fans and looks bad going into november.

game over